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Analysis Area: Daegu Metropolitan City

Core Areas: Suseong Alpha City, Seongseo Industrial Complex, Dalseong Industrial Complex, Daegu metropolitan university districts, and youth employment and residential areas

Agenda:  Is investment in future industries linked to the jobs, wages, career paths, housing, and living environments desired by young people, leading to local settlement?

Golden Time Type: Talent Leakage + Demographic Lock-In Risk

Reference Date: August 28, 2026

Version: Regional AX Golden Time Intelligence v3.2
 

Daegu is simultaneously expanding investments in Suseong Alpha City, the Industrial AX Innovation Hub, the National Robot Test Field, as well as in future mobility, semiconductors, and AI healthcare. Conversely, Daegu recorded the highest net outflow of people in their 20s among all special and metropolitan cities nationwide, with a projected net migration of -4,884 people and a net migration rate of -2.3% in 2025. A reverse structure has emerged where the foundation for future industries expands, yet the number of young people entering this transitional phase continues to decline. If this trend persists for two to three years, new industrial facilities will come to rely on external hiring and workforce reallocation rather than local talent. While  Daegu's future industry policies have entered the investment phase, the opposite results are still being observed regarding youth settlement performance.

In 2023, the youth population aged 19 to 39 in Daegu stood at 585,000, a 17.1% decrease from 2015 , and approximately 8,000 people migrated to the Seoul metropolitan area in the same year . The reasons for migration were ranked in the order of employment, education, and housing, revealing that the outflow of youth is not merely a simple population decline but a structural spatial redistribution of employment, career, and educational opportunities . If the decline in the youth population and the demand for manpower in future industries proceed simultaneously by 2028, actual hiring will be delayed following the attraction of companies, and the wage competitiveness of local businesses will weaken.  The outflow of youth from Daegu is judged not to be a social issue unrelated to future industries, but rather a loss of personnel necessary for implementing industrial transformation.

In the first half of 2023, Daegu's youth employment rate stood at 64.5%, 6.0 percentage points lower than the 70.5% recorded in the Seoul metropolitan area. As the gap, which stood at 2.1 percentage points in 2015, widened over the past eight years, a structure has formed where the likelihood of Daegu youth entering the labor market improves more slowly than in the capital region. Despite Daegu increasing investment in future industries and expanding corporate support, the relative position of employment probability perceived by young people has declined. If new industrial projects remain in the research and facility construction phases for the next two to three years, hiring young people will be further delayed. Consequently,  Daegu's investment in future industries has failed to resolve the current relative gap in youth employment opportunities.

Among employed youth in Daegu, the proportion earning over 3 million won per month was 34.4%, 13.1 percentage points lower than in the Seoul metropolitan area , and the proportion of permanent workers was 68.9%, 3.4 percentage points lower than in the capital area.  Disparities are confirmed not only in employment status but also in wages and job security, leaving open the possibility that even if jobs in future industries emerge in the region, compensation and contract conditions may be lower than in the capital area. If the wage gap for the same job persists for two to three years, the migration of AI, semiconductor, and software personnel trained in Daegu to the capital area becomes an economically rational choice.  The direct gap in youth outflow is more pronounced in the quality of jobs than in the number of jobs.

The local employment rate for graduates of general universities in the Daegu and Gyeongbuk regions fell by 2.2 percentage points from 44.6% in 2017 to 42.4% in 2023. While talent development programs for semiconductors, AI, and future mobility are expanding, the structure is such that the proportion of graduates remaining in the region after graduation is actually decreasing. Unless corporate recruitment and educational curricula are designed simultaneously by 2028, regional universities will strengthen their role of cultivating talent for future industries and supplying them to companies in the Seoul metropolitan area. Although  Daegu's foundation for talent development has expanded, its ability to retain talent has weakened.

The National Robot Test Field is scheduled for completion in 2028, while the Industrial AX Innovation Hub and the High-Reliability Semiconductor Development Support Center are set to be finished around 2029. Since large-scale investments in future industries proceed with site selection, design, construction, and equipment setup first, followed by research, operations, and corporate hiring later, there is a time lag of at least two to three years between the hiring experiences currently felt by young people and the actual future.  For young people graduating today, jobs in 2029 are not current options, and by the time the facilities are completed, they will have already established careers in the Seoul metropolitan area.  While Daegu's industrial investment forecasts future employment, it fails to secure the timing for the migration of today's youth.

Suseong Alpha City confirmed actual employment expansion in the digital industry, with the number of employees increasing from 3,661 to approximately 6,300 between 2022 and 2025. However, the net outflow of youth from Daegu as a whole continued during the same period , with the net outflow of those in their 20s alone reaching 4,884 in 2025. This reveals a scale gap where employment growth in specific hubs fails to absorb the labor market demand of the city's youth. If only hub-based employment increases until 2028, the outflow of youth not employed in future industries and those from outlying areas will continue. While  jobs in Daegu's future industries are growing, they are not at a level sufficient to offset the overall outflow of the city's youth.

The majority of future industry companies in Daegu are small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs), and even Suseong Alpha City is projected to have an average of approximately 21 employees per company by 2025. While the industrial names of AI, robotics, and semiconductors have become advanced, small-scale companies may face limitations in job specialization, senior staff, training budgets, and career paths for subsequent job changes.  There is no evidence tracking wages by job level, training investment, promotions, or career paths after leaving local future industry companies. If only the industry brand expands over the next two to three years without the formation of internal corporate career structures, young people will choose the Seoul metropolitan area, where large corporations and platform companies are concentrated, even for the same job roles.  The mobility of Daegu's youth is determined by differences in the density of the career ladder rather than the absence of industries.

In a public analysis for 2026, young people who graduated from high schools outside the capital area and resided in the capital region recorded an employment rate of 97.5%, a rate of employment in large corporations of 26.0%, and an average monthly income of 3,111,000 won . In contrast, the group that continued to reside outside the capital region showed an employment rate of 66.4%, a rate of employment in large corporations of 10.4%, and an average monthly income of 1,913,000 won . Despite the burden of housing and living costs associated with relocation, significant disparities exist in employment probability, company size, and income. If this gap persists over the next two to three years, settling in the region will be perceived as an opportunity cost rather than a source of economic stability.  Moving to the capital region is not merely a preference, but a choice based on labor market outcomes.

According to a regional labor market analysis released in 2026, the average monthly wage for young workers in Daegu was 2,732,000 won, 319,000 won lower than the national average of 3,051,000 won.  The average monthly wage for professionals and related workers in Daegu was 3,448,000 won, 670,000 won lower than the national average of 4,118,000 won, indicating a larger gap even in highly skilled roles. The structure is such that the wage increase resulting from migration to the Seoul metropolitan area is greater for those working in future industries. The difference in starting salaries over two to three years accumulates in the base income during subsequent salary negotiations and job changes.  The wage gap for young people in Daegu extends beyond the current difference in living expenses to a long-term career income disparity.

The proportion of non-regular workers among all wage earners in Daegu reached 37.9% in 2024, a 6.0 percentage point increase from 10 years ago . As jobs in future industries increase, employment instability in the local labor market expands, sending conflicting signals to young people regarding the growth potential of new industries and current employment conditions. Unless employment in public projects, fixed-term research, and project roles increases while core regular positions grow by 2028, investment in future industries will fail to improve employment stability.  The outflow of youth from Daegu is a structural result of the combination of low wages and unstable employment.

Kyungpook National University, DGIST, and local universities are expanding the cultivation of talent in semiconductors, AI, robotics, and mobility software. However, data confirming the specific job roles, hiring quotas, and wages required by local companies at the admission and education stages is limited, and the regional employment rate for graduates of general universities in Daegu and Gyeongbuk remains at 42.4%. If educational supply and corporate demand are separated by sector, graduates will seek local jobs and then move to the Seoul metropolitan area. Unless the cycle of major-field training-employment-two-year retention is connected by 2028, the expansion of education will fail to alleviate the labor shortage faced by local companies.  While Daegu's talent pipeline has expanded at the education stage, it remains disconnected at the employment and settlement stages.

While numerous internships, industry-academia projects, and training programs for local companies are in operation, the conversion rate to regular employment, the match rate with majors, and the two-year retention rate of participants are not disclosed in an integrated manner.  If the number of short-term participants and graduates represents the overall performance, it remains impossible to verify whether young people are starting and continuing their careers in the region. If educational outcomes are interrupted after two to three years with the termination of a project, companies simply recruit new personnel for the next program. In  Daegu, while the volume of industry-academia collaboration is verifiable, the results regarding workforce accumulation remain unconfirmed.

In 2023, the proportion of university graduates or higher among young people in Daegu was 66.4% for women and 56.0% for men, indicating that women's educational attainment was 10.4 percentage points higher.  Conversely, according to wage data released for 2026, the average monthly wage for female workers in Daegu was 2,267,000 won, which is merely 66.4% of the 3,414,000 won earned by men . This reveals a gender reversal structure where high educational attainment does not translate into local compensation or career opportunities. If the hiring of women in future industries and their entry into managerial and professional positions do not expand over the next two to three years, the migration of highly educated women to the Seoul metropolitan area will become entrenched first.  The outflow of youth from Daegu is not a gender-neutral phenomenon but rather a structural issue that poses a greater risk of losing female talent.

In the field of future industries, the job structures of existing male-dominated sectors such as machinery, automobiles, robotics, and semiconductors are merging with AI and software. However, data separating hiring, wages, promotions, and turnover rates by gender in local future industry companies is unavailable. Unless the entry performance of female talent is measured by 2028, the gender gap will remain obscured even amidst an overall increase in hiring. Consequently,  it is difficult to conclude that the talent base of Daegu's future industries is sufficiently absorbing young women.

In 2023, the reasons for Daegu youth moving to the Seoul metropolitan area were found to be, in order, employment, education, and housing , with employment being the primary factor. Even with Daegu's relatively low housing and living costs, the advantage of settlement costs does not change choices if the disparities in employment rates, wages, company size, and career opportunities are greater. The fact that actual net outflows persisted, despite past surveys showing that 77% of local youth wanted to continue residing in Daegu, also demonstrates a disconnect between preference and behavior. Unless housing support-centered responses are linked to employment outcomes over the next two to three years, youth migration decisions will not change.  The primary cause of the outflow of youth from Daegu is the labor market, rather than the settlement environment.

Past surveys indicate that 60% of young people from Daegu who moved to the Seoul metropolitan area wish to return . While the desire to return is high, the actual rate of repatriation remains unclear due to persistent gaps in wages, job responsibilities, and company size within the region. As careers are built in the capital area, a job mismatch widens, making it difficult to find equivalent positions in Daegu. Even if the intention to return remains after two to three years, the likelihood of taking action decreases if the cost of career interruption increases.  Daegu possesses an emotional demand for repatriation, but its market for experienced professionals to absorb this demand is weak.

Daegu is simultaneously expanding infrastructure for AI, robotics, mobility, semiconductors, and healthcare, as well as university talent development programs. Conversely, a net outflow of 4,884 people in their 20s is projected for 2025, and the regional employment rate for graduates of general universities in Daegu and Gyeongbuk stands at 42.4%, confirming an employment and wage gap compared to the Seoul metropolitan area. If new investments do not lead to stable, high-wage jobs by 2028, the separation between the industrial base and the talent base will intensify. The current level of readiness is assessed as high for industrial investment and medium-low for the youth labor market .

Employment expansion is confirmed in some industrial hubs, such as through an increase in the workforce at Suseong Alpha City and new hiring by companies transitioning to future vehicles. However, the youth employment rate for the entire city is 6.0 percentage points lower than that of the metropolitan area and has failed to offset the net outflow of people in their 20s. If employment remains concentrated in a few hubs and companies for two to three years, the gap between the vision for future industries and the reality felt by the majority of young people widens. The level of employment diffusion is assessed as an increase in hubs but a lack of ripple effect across the entire city .

The proportion of young people in Daegu earning over 3 million won per month and the proportion of permanent workers are 13.1 percentage points and 3.4 percentage points lower, respectively, than in the Seoul metropolitan area.  The overall proportion of non-regular workers also rose to 37.9% in 2024. Unless wages and contract types for jobs in future industries are separately improved by 2028, an increase in high-tech roles will not lead to youth settlement. The level of spread in wage and employment stability is judged to be low .

The regional employment rate for graduates of general universities in Daegu and Gyeongbuk declined from 44.6% in 2017 to 42.4% in 2023 , while the employment rate in the Seoul metropolitan area was **36.4%** in 2023. Despite the expansion of semiconductor and AI education, the rate of graduates remaining in the region after graduation did not improve. If education and recruitment are separated for two to three years, the cultivation of new talent expands the supply to the Seoul metropolitan area rather than retaining it in the region. The level of regional talent retention is judged to continue declining .

While Daegu's major future industry facilities are scheduled for completion in 2028–2029, current university students and graduates decide on their first jobs before then.  If they establish industrial networks and careers in the Seoul metropolitan area after their first employment, the cost of returning to the region increases by the time the facilities are completed. If youth employment, wage, and career indicators do not improve by 2028, Daegu will bear the cost of attracting talent from outside after the future industry infrastructure is completed. The "golden time" for youth settlement is assessed to be the next 18 to 24 months, which is shorter than the completion of the facilities.

A young person's initial employment location has a long-term impact on their workplace network, housing, marriage, and career mobility. If the net outflow of those in their 20s accumulates annually, the talent pool capable of growing into mid-career professionals and managers within local companies also decreases. Even if new facilities begin hiring after 2028, it will be difficult to bring back young people who have already moved at the same cost. Irreversibility is assessed as high risk regarding initial career outflow, female talent outflow, and corporate workforce base .

Youth in Daegu are not leaving solely because there are no future industries. They are leaving because investment in future industries has not sufficiently translated into current high wages, stable employment, and career paths.

While industrial policy has reached the future based on facilities and project costs, youth employment decisions are made in the current labor market.  The difference between these two time axes is perpetuating the brain drain from Daegu.

The final judgment is “Future Industry Investment + Present Career Opportunity Gap .  ” While Daegu is fostering future industries, it is difficult to conclude that it has instilled confidence in young people that they can grow within those industries.

Overall Score: 49 / 100

Golden Time Status:
RED

Time Window:
18~24 months

Failure Mode:
Daegu educates talent for future industries, and companies in the capital area absorb their initial careers and long-term productivity.

Irreversibility:
High risk of early career and female talent drain

Evidence Sources

• National Data Agency—Comparison of Quality of Life for Youth in Daegu/Gyeongbuk and the Seoul Metropolitan Area
• Bank of Korea Daegu-Gyeongbuk Branch—Outflow of youth population in the Daegu region
• Daegu Metropolitan City Council—Status of Net Population Outflow in Daegu
• Daegu Metropolitan City Council—Survey on Youth Settlement and Job Mobility
• Analysis by the Korea Educational Development Institute—Employment of Graduates from Daegu and Gyeongbuk Universities in the Capital Area
• Daegu Institute for Policy Studies—Youth Population Migration and Economic Factors
• Daegu Metropolitan City Council—Youth Outflow to the Capital Area and Manpower Management Plan
• Daegu Metropolitan City Business Support Pocketbook—Support for Youth Startups and Future Industries

Structural Insight — For young people, living in the metropolitan area is a choice to buy a 'next job' rather than a high salary.

While the salary at a first job is a direct cause of youth mobility, it does not fully explain the decision to move. In the metropolitan area, companies with similar roles, colleagues, investors, and educational institutions are concentrated, making it highly likely that one will find a next job even if their current one fails.  Young people compare the options available in the regional labor market along with the salary offered by a specific company.

Even if companies in Daegu’s future industries offer starting salaries similar to those in the Seoul metropolitan area, the risk of changing jobs is higher if there are few companies providing the same duties. When companies close down, scale back operations, or experience organizational conflicts, staying in the region increases the likelihood of job changes or wage reductions. While  this difference does not appear on current pay stubs, it is reflected in young people's decisions regarding mobility.

Therefore, the structural cause of the outflow of youth from Daegu lies not merely in a shortage of individual jobs, but in the low density of companies performing the same duties. Even if a single company in a future industry increases hiring, young people will not settle down unless a labor market encompassing subsequent employment is established. The greatest asset that young people from Daegu secure in the capital area is not a high starting salary, but the probability of maintaining an unbroken career .